Where the Loads Are: Navigating the Seasonal Swings of the Dry Van Market

Driver's guide to US dry van demand: South in spring/summer, North/Midwest in fall/winter, plus Eastern, Western, CA/AZ market tips.

DISPATCHING 101

Edward Seporaitis

12/12/20237 min read

Understanding the Dry Van Market


The most common type of trailer used in trucking is the dry van. Dry vans are enclosed trailers without any special temperature or environmental controls, used to haul general freight that does not require refrigeration or protection from weather. This versatility makes dry vans the go-to choice for many trucking companies and owner-operators. With no special handling requirements, dry vans can transport a wide variety of cargo, from palletized goods to loose bulk items.


Dry vans dominate the trailer market due to their simplicity and flexibility. Unlike refrigerated trailers or flatbeds, dry vans can handle conventional boxed goods without additional equipment or considerations. The enclosed space also provides security and protection against damage. For truck drivers, the prevalence of dry van loads makes it easier to find cargo and maximize utilization. With so many dry vans on the road, competition for loads can be fierce. Understanding the dynamics of dry van freight is key for succeeding in this popular trailer segment.


Southern States


The Southern states, including TX, OK, AR, MS, AL, GA, TN, SC, NC, and northern FL, are a great place for dry van truckers from April through July. This region experiences a peak in demand in June, likely driven by increased shipping activity in preparation for back-to-school sales.


Dry van truckers looking to maximize loads and rates should plan to target runs in the Southern states starting in April, with the peak weeks being in June. Focusing efforts on these months and in this region can help dry van truckers take advantage of the increased demand. During the spring and early summer, the South offers plentiful loads at profitable rates.


After the 4th of July demand starts to drop off in the South as shippers focus on inventory for the winter holiday season. Dry van truckers will want to start transitioning north at this point. But for the spring through early summer, the Southern states present an ideal source of loads and income.


Northern and Midwest States


The northern Midwest states are a great place to find loads from late September through mid January, with peak seasons around Christmas and New Years. This region includes Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Missouri and Kansas.


During the fall through winter months, this cold weather region sees an increase in demand for trucking to transport goods for the holiday season and winter needs. The agriculture, manufacturing, and retail industries in particular ramp up shipping during this timeframe.


Rates can be lucrative for dry vans heading to destinations in the upper Midwest such as Minneapolis, Des Moines, Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit, and St. Louis from September onward. The peak weeks in December leading up to and shortly after Christmas and New Years are especially profitable.


After the seasonal surge in January, freight volumes taper off in the Midwest and become less consistent. By mid January, trucking capacity expands and rates decline as demand drops everywhere. Still, the northern Midwest region remains a better bet than other colder areas of the country through winter.


Dry van operators should target freight in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Missouri and Kansas from the early fall through winter months to take advantage of the increased seasonal shipping in this region. The upper Midwest is the place to be during the peak holiday season.


Eastern States - Generally Low Freight Demand Year Round


The Eastern states, including WV, PA, NY, VA, MD, DE, CT, VT, NH, MA, RI, and ME, are generally a poor area for dry van freight all year long. Some parts of the region may see increased demand during certain seasons, such as:


- The Pittsburgh, PA area

- The Buffalo, NY area

- Virginia

- West Virginia


However, Eastern states tend to have lower freight rates due to high competition from the large number of trucks in the area. Going to the Eastern states also involves paying high tolls, while backhauls tend to be cheap.


It's advisable to be prepared before heading to Eastern states rather than venturing there spontaneously. Consider checking load availability and pricing in advance. Overall the Eastern states see consistent low freight demand compared to other regions in the US. There are limited seasonal exceptions in cities like Pittsburgh and Buffalo. But in general, dry van carriers will find more plentiful loads and higher rates in other areas of the country.


Western States


The Western states, including NM, CO, WY, MT, ND, SD, WA, OR, NV, and UT, generally have low freight demand throughout the year. There are a few exceptions to this:


- The Dakotas (North Dakota and South Dakota) can have good freight activity in the winter months when produce needs to be transported south and inventory needs to be restocked. The areas close to the Minnesota and Iowa borders tend to see the most activity.


- Washington and Oregon may see spikes in demand during cherry, apple, and potato harvest seasons.


- Some mining and energy projects in states like Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah may create temporary pockets of increased demand.


Overall, Western states remain a risky gamble for dry van operators. The low population density means fewer goods need transporting. Backhaul loads into the region often pay very little. Going deep into a Western state without a booked reload substantially increases empty miles.


When considering loads to Western states, do your homework ahead of time. Only take them if the outbound freight pays extremely well and you have a solid backhaul lined up. The last thing you want is a cheap low-paying load taking you deep into a Western state and getting stuck coming back empty.


California and Arizona Market


The California and Arizona market gets pretty hot during the summer months, so it is worth heading to these states and taking on longer hauls. The demand for trucks tends to increase in June, peak in July and August, and then start to cool off after Labor Day in September.


During the winter months, specifically around Christmas and New Years, the California and Arizona market can potentially still be strong. It's best to verify load volumes before committing to routes in these states for the holidays, as demand can fluctuate year to year.


The key is being flexible and strategic with your dispatch. Monitor load volumes and rates closely to capitalize on seasonal shifts. For example, you may want to head towards California in the spring, focus on the southern states in the summer, transition back west in the fall, and then position yourself in the northern states for winter.


General Strategy


The key to maximizing profitability as a dry van owner operator is being flexible and moving your truck to wherever rates are highest. This requires closely monitoring load rates across different regions and being willing to relocate.


During peak seasons like summer and winter holidays, focus on hot markets like Texas, Georgia, Illinois, Ohio, and California. Rates will likely be substantially higher as demand is high. Avoid oversaturated markets unless rates justify it.


When taking loads into lower volume areas like the Northeast or Northwest, carefully consider what backhaul rates will be available. Taking a load with a high rate going in but limited options returning could ultimately be less profitable. Research typical volumes and rates for return loads before committing.


Be prepared to move across the country as needed. Having an established network of brokers in different regions will help you get loads and information on rate conditions. Load boards are also useful for spotting rate surges around the country. With flexibility and planning, you can keep your truck moving in high rate areas.


Peak Times


The best freight rates and highest demand for dry vans tends to occur during certain peak seasons in different regions of the country.


- In the Southern states like Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and North Carolina, peak season is in the spring and early summer. Freight volumes start increasing in April and hit their highest point in June, before cooling off after the 4th of July. During April through early July, sticking to routes in the South can help maximize earnings.


- In Northern states like Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, and in Midwest states like Kentucky, Missouri and Kansas, peak season falls in the late autumn and early winter months. Loads increase starting in late September, and the highest demand occurs around the Christmas and New Year's season from late December through mid January. This region remains decent through winter before dropping off in February.


- In California and Arizona, summer tends to be the peak season with lots of loads and good rates, especially June through August. Volumes may still be strong in December, so it's worth checking those markets around the holidays.


Slow Times


The dry van market tends to slow down after the peak seasons in different regions of the country.


January Slowdown


January tends to be a slower month for dry van loads across all states. With the holidays over, demand decreases entering the new year. Rates can drop as capacity outweighs volume. It's important to plan for this seasonal slowdown in January when rates are lower across the board.


Year-Round Slow Areas


Certain regions like the Eastern and Western states see weaker demand year-round compared to the seasonal hot spots like the South and Midwest. Loads and rates don't surge in these areas even during peak seasons.


The Eastern states from West Virginia up through New England generally have lower volumes and cheaper backhaul rates. There are some exceptions like Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and parts of Virginia and West Virginia that may see upticks during peak seasons. But in general it's best to be cautious before committing to loads in the Eastern states.


Similarly, the Western states besides North and South Dakota are chronically slow. Areas like Montana, Wyoming, and Nevada are known for having consistently cheap rates due to the lack of demand. Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico can see some seasonal strength but are generally weaker markets. Going into Western states often means deadheading out for cheap.


While the Eastern and Western states might offer temptingly quick loads during slow periods, it's usually better to wait for stronger opportunities in busier regions than take cheap loads in these perpetually slow areas. Patience during slow seasons can pay off.


Conclusion


The dry van market has distinct seasonal and regional trends that are important for truckers to understand. By tracking where capacity and rates are strongest during different times of year, truckers can maximize their efficiency and earnings.


The southern states of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina and northern Florida see peak demand during the spring and summer months of April through early July. The northern states of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Missouri, and Kansas become busier in the fall and winter from late September through mid January, with peak demand around the Christmas and New Year holidays.


The eastern states along the Atlantic seaboard tend to have weaker markets year-round, though some areas like Pittsburgh, Buffalo, West Virginia and Virginia may see upticks during peak seasons. The western states also generally have lower demand outside of South Dakota and North Dakota in winter. California and Arizona can get hot in the summer and around Christmas.


By paying close attention to seasonal shifts and regional trends, truckers can optimize their routing and availability to take advantage of the strongest markets while avoiding oversaturation in weaker areas. This understanding is key to maximizing profitability and running an efficient operation. With preparation and analysis of market cycles, truckers can thrive in the competitive dry van industry.